Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.830375 0.973218 1.133200 1.325678 1.551042 1.806656 2.118762
2024-10-20 0.574440 0.753740 0.978142 1.279770 1.675021 2.175995 2.860424
2024-10-27 0.438799 0.623970 0.874791 1.239672 1.757828 2.468801 3.521467
2024-11-03 0.367566 0.557906 0.832807 1.259254 1.905711 2.851825 4.347436
2024-11-10 0.333001 0.534744 0.842717 1.347769 2.157911 3.411659 5.509321
2024-11-17 0.296163 0.500075 0.827110 1.390674 2.341426 3.887935 6.610002
2024-11-24 0.260249 0.459967 0.794986 1.398961 2.465773 4.281637 7.629074
2024-12-01 0.227839 0.420003 0.755973 1.387420 2.551054 4.616475 8.590189
2024-12-08 0.201746 0.386822 0.723158 1.380393 2.640529 4.966641 9.624580
2024-12-15 0.182509 0.363158 0.703639 1.393874 2.767733 5.399354 10.872054
2024-12-22 0.158739 0.327106 0.655541 1.344853 2.766213 5.585626 11.662095
2024-12-29 0.153566 0.327286 0.677578 1.437753 3.059524 6.386680 13.808906
2025-01-05 0.134451 0.296360 0.633820 1.391046 3.062496 6.609098 14.798634
2025-01-12 0.117890 0.268551 0.592898 1.344898 3.061077 6.824707 15.814156
2025-01-19 0.103964 0.244442 0.556424 1.302875 3.061912 7.043941 16.869707
2025-01-26 0.096411 0.233745 0.548079 1.323468 3.208438 7.609014 18.816191
2025-02-02 0.094430 0.235879 0.569281 1.416522 3.539555 8.646908 22.061138
2025-02-09 0.089457 0.229975 0.570677 1.461627 3.760361 9.452683 24.854275
2025-02-16 0.082867 0.219025 0.558285 1.470339 3.890839 10.054480 27.217167
2025-02-23 0.075891 0.206034 0.538956 1.458206 3.965208 10.523803 29.300488
2025-03-02 0.069873 0.194705 0.522335 1.450819 4.051127 11.035106 31.578247
2025-03-09 0.065405 0.186959 0.514075 1.464991 4.198154 11.730214 34.480187
2025-03-16 0.058648 0.171821 0.483842 1.413457 4.153293 11.893853 35.880366